Browsing by Author "Kwenda, Geoffrey"

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    Identification of cholera hotspots in Zambia: A spatiotemporal analysis of cholera data from 2008 to 2017.
    (2020-Apr) Mwaba, John; Debes, Amanda K.; Shea, Patrick; Mukonka, Victor; Chewe, Orbrie; Chisenga, Caroline; Simuyandi, Michelo; Kwenda, Geoffrey; Sack, David; Chilengi, Roma; Ali, Mohammad
    The global burden of cholera is increasing, with the majority (60%) of the cases occurring in sub-Saharan Africa. In Zambia, widespread cholera outbreaks have occurred since 1977, predominantly in the capital city of Lusaka. During both the 2016 and 2018 outbreaks, the Ministry of Health implemented cholera vaccination in addition to other preventative and control measures, to stop the spread and control the outbreak. Given the limitations in vaccine availability and the logistical support required for vaccination, oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is now recommended for use in the high risk areas ("hotspots") for cholera. Hence, the aim of this study was to identify areas with an increased risk of cholera in Zambia. Retrospective cholera case data from 2008 to 2017 was obtained from the Ministry of Health, Department of Public Health and Disease Surveillance. The Zambian Central Statistical Office provided district-level population data, socioeconomic and water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) indicators. To identify districts at high risk, we performed a discrete Poisson-based space-time scan statistic to account for variations in cholera risk across both space and time over a 10-year study period. A zero-inflated negative binomial regression model was employed to identify the district level risk factors for cholera. The risk map was generated by classifying the relative risk of cholera in each district, as obtained from the space-scan test statistic. In total, 34,950 cases of cholera were reported in Zambia between 2008 and 2017. Cholera cases varied spatially by year. During the study period, Lusaka District had the highest burden of cholera, with 29,080 reported cases. The space-time scan statistic identified 16 districts to be at a significantly higher risk of having cholera. The relative risk of having cholera in these districts was significantly higher and ranged from 1.25 to 78.87 times higher when compared to elsewhere in the country. Proximity to waterbodies was the only factor associated with the increased risk for cholera (P<0.05). This study provides a basis for the cholera elimination program in Zambia. Outside Lusaka, the majority of high risk districts identified were near the border with the DRC, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. This suggests that cholera in Zambia may be linked to movement of people from neighboring areas of cholera endemicity. A collaborative intervention program implemented in concert with neighboring countries could be an effective strategy for elimination of cholera in Zambia, while also reducing rates at a regional level.
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    Identification of viral and bacterial pathogens from hospitalized children with severe acute respiratory illness in Lusaka, Zambia, 2011-2012: a cross-sectional study.
    (2015-Feb-12) Simusika, Paul; Bateman, Allen C.; Theo, Andros; Kwenda, Geoffrey; Mfula, Christine; Chentulo, Edward; Monze, Mwaka
    BACKGROUND: Morbidity and mortality from respiratory infections are higher in resource-limited countries than developed countries, but limited studies have been conducted in resource-limited settings to examine pathogens from patients with acute respiratory infections. Influenza surveillance has been conducted in Zambia since 2008; however, only 4.3% of patients enrolled in 2011-2012 were positive for influenza. Therefore, we examined non-influenza respiratory pathogens in children with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in Zambia, to estimate the scope of disease burden and determine commonly-identified respiratory pathogens. METHODS: Two reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) methods (single and multiplex) were used to analyze nasopharyngeal and throat swabs collected from SARI cases under five years of age from January 2011 through December 2012. All specimens were negative for influenza by rRT-PCR. The panel of singleplex reactions targeted seven viruses, while the multiplex assay targeted thirty-three bacteria, fungi, and viruses. RESULTS: A set of 297 specimens were tested by singleplex rRT-PCR, and a different set of 199 were tested by multiplex rRT-PCR. Using the singleplex assay, 184/297 (61.9%) specimens were positive for one or more viruses. The most prevalent viruses were human rhinovirus (57/297; 19.2%), human adenovirus (50/297; 16.8%), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (45/297; 15.2%). Using multiplex PCR, at least one virus was detected from 167/199 (83.9%) specimens, and at least one bacteria was detected from 197/199 (99.0%) specimens. Cytomegalovirus (415/199; 208.5%) and RSV (67/199; 33.7%) were the most commonly detected viruses, while Streptococcus pneumonie (109/199; 54.8%) and Moraxella catarrhalis (92/199; 46.2%) were the most commonly detected bacteria. CONCLUSIONS: Single infections and co-infections of many viruses and bacteria were identified in children with SARI. These results provide an estimate of the prevalence of infection and show which respiratory pathogens are commonly identified in patients. Further studies should investigate causal associations between individual pathogens and SARI.