Browsing by Author "Silumesii A"

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Interrupted time-series analysis of active case-finding for tuberculosis during the COVID-19 pandemic, Zambia.
(2022-Mar-01) Lungu PS; Kerkhoff AD; Muyoyeta M; Kasapo CC; Nyangu S; Kagujje M; Chimzizi R; Nyimbili S; Khunga M; Kasese-Chanda N; Musonda V; Tambatamba B; Kombe CM; Sakulanda C; Sampa K; Silumesii A; Malama K; National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme, Ministry of Health, Ndeke House, Haile-Selaise Road, PO Box 30205, Lusaka, Zambia.; United States Agency for International Development, Lusaka, Zambia.; Eradicate Tuberculosis Project, United States Agency for International Development, Lusaka, Zambia.; Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, United States of America.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the subsequent implementation of tuberculosis response measures on tuberculosis notifications in Zambia. METHODS: We used an interrupted time-series design to compare monthly tuberculosis notifications in Zambia before the pandemic (January 2019 to February 2020), after implementation of national pandemic mitigation measures (April 2020 to June 2020) and after response measures to improve tuberculosis detection (August 2020 to September 2021). The tuberculosis response included enhanced data surveillance, facility-based active case-finding and activities to generate demand for services. We used nationally aggregated, facility-level tuberculosis notification data for the analysis. FINDINGS: Pre-pandemic tuberculosis case notifications rose steadily from 2890 in January 2019 to 3337 in February 2020. After the start of the pandemic and mitigation measures, there was a -22% (95% confidence interval, CI: -24 to -19) immediate decline in notifications in April 2020. Larger immediate declines in notifications were seen among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals (-36%; 95% CI: -38 to -35; versus -12%; 95% CI: -17 to -6). Following roll-out of tuberculosis response measures in July 2020, notifications immediately increased by 45% (95% CI: 38 to 51) nationally and across all subgroups and provinces. The trend in notifications remained stable through September 2021, with similar numbers to the predicted number had the pandemic not occurred. CONCLUSION: Implementation of a coordinated public health response including active tuberculosis case-finding was associated with reversal of the adverse impact of the pandemic and mitigation measures. The gains were sustained throughout subsequent waves of the pandemic.
Tuberculosis care cascade in Zambia - identifying the gaps in order to improve outcomes: a population-based analysis.
(2021-Aug-10) Lungu P; Kerkhoff AD; Kasapo CC; Mzyece J; Nyimbili S; Chimzizi R; Silumesii A; Kagujje M; Subbaraman R; Muyoyeta M; Malama K; Department of Public Health and Research, Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme, Lusaka, Zambia patrickpj456@yahoo.co.uk.; Tuberculosis Department, Center for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.; National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Control Programme, Lusaka, Zambia.; Department of Internal Medicine, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.; Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
OBJECTIVE: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Zambia, especially for people living with HIV (PLHIV). We undertook a care cascade analysis to quantify gaps in care and align programme improvement measures with areas of need. DESIGN: Retrospective, population-based analysis. SETTING: We derived national-level estimates for each step of the TB care cascade in Zambia. Estimates were informed by WHO incidence estimates, nationally aggregated laboratory and notification registers, and individual-level programme data from four provinces. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included all individuals with active TB disease in Zambia in 2018. We characterised the overall TB cascade and disaggregated by drug susceptibility results and HIV status. RESULTS: In 2018, the total burden of TB in Zambia was estimated to be 72 495 (range, 40 495-111 495) cases. Of these, 43 387 (59.8%) accessed TB testing, 40 176 (55.4%) were diagnosed with TB, 36 431 (50.3%) were started on treatment and 32 700 (45.1%) completed treatment. Among all persons with TB lost at any step along the care cascade (n=39 795), 29 108 (73.1%) were lost prior to accessing diagnostic services, 3211 (8.1%) prior to diagnosis, 3745 (9.4%) prior to initiating treatment and 3731 (9.4%) prior to treatment completion. PLHIV were less likely than HIV-negative individuals to successfully complete the care cascade (42.8% vs 50.2%, p<0.001). Among those with rifampicin-resistant TB, there was substantial attrition at each step of the cascade and only 22.8% were estimated to have successfully completed treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Losses throughout the care cascade resulted in a large proportion of individuals with TB not completing treatment. Ongoing health systems strengthening and patient-centred engagement strategies are needed at every step of the care cascade; however, scale-up of active case finding strategies is particularly critical to ensure individuals with TB in the population reach initial stages of care. Additionally, a renewed focus on PLHIV and individuals with drug-resistant TB is urgently needed to improve TB-related outcomes in Zambia.
Undernotification and underreporting of tuberculosis in Zambia: a national data quality assessment.
(2022-Aug-22) Lungu PS; Kabaso ME; Mihova R; Silumesii A; Chisenga T; Kasapo C; Mwaba I; Kerkhoff AD; Muyoyeta M; Chimzizi R; Malama K; USAID Sustaining Technical and Analytic Resources (STAR) Project, Lusaka, Zambia.; Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia. lungupatrick99@gmail.com.; Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases and Global Medicine, Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA.; USAID Eradicate TB Program, Lusaka, Zambia.; Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Despite national implementation of several high impact interventions and innovations to bolster tuberculosis (TB) detection and improve quality of TB services in Zambia, notifications have been declining since 2004. A countrywide data quality assessment (DQA) of Zambia's National TB and Leprosy Programme (NTLP) was undertaken to quantify the degree to which undernotification and underreporting of TB notifications may be occurring. METHODS: The NTLP conducted a retrospective DQA of health facilities in high burden districts in all ten Zambian provinces. Multiple routine programmatic data sources were triangulated through a multi-step verification process to enumerate the total number of unique TB patients diagnosed between 1st January and 31st August 2019; both bacteriologically confirmed and clinically diagnosed TB patients were included. Undernotification was defined as the number of TB patients identified through the DQA that were not documented in facility treatment registers, while underreporting was defined as the number of notified TB cases not reported to the NTLP. RESULTS: Overall, 265 health facilities across 55 districts were assessed from which 28,402 TB patients were identified; 94.5% of TB patients were ≥ 15 years old, 65.1% were male, 52.0% were HIV-positive, and 89.6% were a new/relapse case. Among all TB cases, 32.8% (95%CI: 32.2-33.3) were unnotified. Undernotification was associated with age ≥ 15 years old (adjusted prevalence odds ratio [aPOR] = 2.4 [95%CI: 2.0-2.9]), HIV-positive status (aPOR = 1.6 [95%CI: 1.5-1.8]), being a new/relapse TB case (aPOR = 17.5 [95%CI: 13.4-22.8]), being a clinically diagnosed TB case (aPOR = 4.2 [95%CI:3.8-4.6]), and being diagnosed at a hospital (range, aPOR = 1.5 [95%CI: 1.3-1.6] to 2.6 [95%CI: 2.3-2.9]). There was substantial heterogeneity in the proportion of unnotified TB cases by province (range, 18.2% to 43.6%). In a sub-analysis among 22,199 TB patients with further data available, 55.9% (95%CI: 55.2-56.6) were notified and reported to the NTLP, 32.8% (95%CI: 32.2-33.4) were unnotified, and 11.3% (95%CI: 10.9-11.7) went unreported to the NTLP. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from Zambia's first countrywide TB programme DQA demonstrate substantial undernotification and underreporting of TB cases across all provinces. This underscores the urgent need to implement a robust and integrated data management system to facilitate timely registration and reporting of all TB patients who are diagnosed and treated.