Browsing by Author "Wa Mwanza M"

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Mitigating the effects of COVID-19 on HIV treatment and care in Lusaka, Zambia: a before-after cohort study using mixed effects regression.
(2022-Jan) Pry JM; Sikombe K; Mody A; Iyer S; Mutale J; Vlahakis N; Savory T; Wa Mwanza M; Mweebo K; Mwila A; Mwale C; Mukumbwa-Mwenechanya M; Kerkhoff AD; Sikazwe I; Bolton Moore C; Mwamba D; Geng EH; Herce ME
INTRODUCTION: The Zambian Ministry of Health (MoH) issued COVID-19 mitigation guidance for HIV care immediately after the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Zambia on 18 March 2020. The Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia implemented MoH guidance by: 1) extending antiretroviral therapy (ART) refill duration to 6 multi-month dispensation (6MMD) and 2) task-shifting communication and mobilisation of those in HIV care to collect their next ART refill early. We assessed the impact of COVID-19 mitigation guidance on HIV care 3 months before and after guidance implementation. METHODS: We reviewed all ART pharmacy visit data in the national HIV medical record for PLHIV in care having ≥1 visit between 1 January-30 June 2020 at 59 HIV care facilities in Lusaka Province, Zambia. We undertook a before-after evaluation using mixed-effects Poisson regression to examine predictors and marginal probability of early clinic return (pharmacy visit >7 days before next appointment), proportion of late visit (>7 days late for next appointment) and probability of receiving a 6MMD ART refill. RESULTS: A total of 101 371 individuals (64% female, median age 39) with 130 486 pharmacy visits were included in the analysis. We observed a significant increase in the adjusted prevalence ratio (4.63; 95% CI 4.45 to 4.82) of early return before compared with after guidance implementation. Receipt of 6MMD increased from a weekly mean of 47.9% (95% CI 46.6% to 49.2%) before to 73.4% (95% CI 72.0% to 74.9%) after guidance implementation. The proportion of late visits (8-89 days late) was significantly higher before (18.8%, 95% CI17.2%to20.2%) compared with after (15.1%, 95% CI13.8%to16.4%) guidance implementation . CONCLUSIONS: Timely issuance and implementation of COVID-19 mitigation guidance involving task-shifted patient communication and mobilisation alongside 6MMD significantly increased early return to ART clinic, potentially reducing interruptions in HIV care during a global public health emergency.
Temporal changes in paediatric and adolescent HIV outcomes across the care continuum in Zambia: an interrupted time-series analysis.
(2022-Aug) Bolton-Moore C; Sikazwe I; Mubiana-Mbewe M; Munthali G; Wa Mwanza M; Savory T; Nkhoma L; Somwe P; Namwase AS; Geng EH; Mody A
BACKGROUND: Paediatric and adolescent HIV treatment programmes in sub-Saharan Africa have rapidly expanded and evolved over the past decade. Real-world evidence of how the implementation of new policies over time has affected treatment outcomes is inadequate, but is crucial for guiding the implementation of the next phases of the HIV treatment response for children. We examined how treatment outcomes in Zambia's national paediatric and adolescent HIV treatment programmes have changed over time as new policies were implemented. METHODS: We used data from Zambia's routine electronic health record to analyse children and adolescents living with HIV who were antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive between the ages of 0 and 19 years who were newly enrolled in care between Jan 1, 2011, and March 31, 2019, at 102 health facilities in Lusaka and Western provinces supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia. Sociodemographic factors, clinical data, facility-level data, and visit history were obtained from the national electronic health record and laboratory systems used in routine HIV care in Zambia. We aimed to characterise the changes in the distribution of the age and sex of new enrolees over time. We used an interrupted time-series design to examine the rates of ART initiation, retention in care, time to ART initiation, and first-line ART regimens among new enrolees across different age strata as they changed over time with the adoption of new ART guidelines in 2014 and 2017. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2011, and March 31, 2019, 26 214 children and adolescents living with HIV who were ART naïve were newly enrolled at one of 102 ART facilities in two provinces in Zambia. Rates of new enrolees increased by 25-35% among children younger than 15 years over time, but by 92·3% between 2011 and 2017 among adolescents, with the largest absolute increase among adolescent girls. Rates of ART initiation increased steadily and in parallel across all age groups from before the implementation of the 2014 guidelines to after the implementation of the 2017 guidelines (<2 years, 42·4% for 2014 and 81·6% for 2017; 2 to <5 years, 39·3% for 2014 and 82·8% for 2017; 5 to <15 years, 49·2% for 2014 and 86·6% for 2017; 15 to 19 years, 52·4% for 2014 and 86·2% for 2017); median time to ART initiation went from 2-3 months to same-day initiation during this same time period. Rates of retention on ART 6 months after linkage saw much smaller improvements over time (<2 years, 35·4% for 2014 and 52·0% for 2017; 2 to <5 years, 40·2% for 2014 and 54·4% for 2017; 5 to <15 years, 46·7% for 2014 and 63·4% for 2017; 15 to 19 years, 40·1% for 2014 and 52·7% for 2017). INTERPRETATION: Improvements in ART initiation occurred largely in parallel across age groups over time, despite universal treatment being implemented at different timepoints for different ages. Although the rates of ART initiation reach high levels, retention on ART was low. This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of how paediatric and adolescent outcomes have evolved over the past decade in Zambia and identifies where more targeted efforts will be needed over the next decade. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.
The impact of the PEPFAR funding freeze on HIV deaths and infections: a mathematical modelling study of seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
(2025-May) Hontelez JAC; Goymann H; Berhane Y; Bhattacharjee P; Bor J; Chabata ST; Cowan F; Kimani J; Knox J; Lora WS; Lungu C; Manne-Goehler J; Mauti J; Moshabela M; Mpembeni RM; Wa Mwanza M; Ndung'u T; Omondi E; Phiri S; Siedner M; Tanser FC; de Vlas SJ; Bärnighausen TW
BACKGROUND: On January 24, 2025, the United States government issued an executive order to freeze all foreign aid programs, including The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), for 90 days. A limited waiver option became available, but its implementation remains incomplete. We estimated the impact of these policy changes on HIV deaths and new infections in seven sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries-Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe -, which together account for about half of all people living with HIV in SSA. METHODS: We used STDSIM, an established individual-based simulation model, and previously published quantifications for the seven countries. We predicted changes in HIV deaths and new infections over the period 2025-2030 for four scenarios: (1) FINDINGS: A 90-day funding freeze would result in 60 thousand [95% UI: 49-71 thousand] excess HIV deaths for the INTERPRETATION: The sudden cessation of PEPFAR funding likely results in tens of thousands of HIV deaths and new infections. These losses of life and health should compel the United States government to rapidly and fully re-instate one of the most successful health programs in history. FUNDING: None.