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Welcome to the CIDRZ Published Research Collection. This collection serves as a central repository of peer-reviewed publications authored, co-authored, or supported by the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ). It provides open access to scientific knowledge that contributes to public health, clinical research, and evidence-based policy in Zambia and beyond.

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Trends in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pregnant women attending first antenatal care visits in Zambia: A repeated cross-sectional survey, 2021-2022.
(2024) Heilmann E; Tembo T; Fwoloshi S; Kabamba B; Chilambe F; Kalenga K; Siwingwa M; Mulube C; Seffren V; Bolton-Moore C; Simwanza J; Yingst S; Yadav R; Rogier E; Auld AF; Agolory S; Kapina M; Gutman JR; Savory T; Kangale C; Mulenga LB; Sikazwe I; Hines JZ; Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.; Public Health Institute, Oakland, California, United States of America.; Division of Global HIV and Tuberculosis, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Lusaka, Zambia.; PATH, Lusaka, Zambia.; Adult Centre of Excellence, University Teaching Hospital, Lusaka, Zambia.; Surveillance and Disease Intelligence, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia.; Division of Infectious Diseases, Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
SARS-CoV-2 serosurveys help estimate the extent of transmission and guide the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines. We measured SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among women attending ANC clinics to assess exposure trends over time in Zambia. We conducted repeated cross-sectional SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence surveys among pregnant women aged 15-49 years attending their first ANC visits in four districts of Zambia (two urban and two rural) during September 2021-September 2022. Serologic testing was done using a multiplex bead assay which detects IgG antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein and the spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD). We calculated monthly SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence by district. We also categorized seropositive results as infection alone, infection and vaccination, or vaccination alone based on anti-RBD and anti-nucleocapsid test results and self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status (vaccinated was having received ≥1 dose). Among 8,304 participants, 5,296 (63.8%) were cumulatively seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from September 2021 through September 2022. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence primarily increased from September 2021 to September 2022 in three districts (Lusaka: 61.8-100.0%, Chongwe: 39.6-94.7%, Chipata: 56.5-95.0%), but in Chadiza, seroprevalence increased from 27.8% in September 2021 to 77.2% in April 2022 before gradually dropping to 56.6% in July 2022. Among 5,906 participants with a valid COVID-19 vaccination status, infection alone accounted for antibody responses in 77.7% (4,590) of participants. Most women attending ANC had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and most SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was infection-induced. Capturing COVID-19 vaccination status and using a multiplex bead assay with anti-nucleocapsid and anti-RBD targets facilitated distinguishing infection-induced versus vaccine-induced antibody responses during a period of increasing COVID-19 vaccine coverage in Zambia. Declining seroprevalence in Chadiza may indicate waning antibodies and a need for booster vaccines. ANC clinics have a potential role in ongoing SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance and can continue to provide insights into SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics to inform near real-time public health responses.
Comparative outcomes of tenofovir-based and zidovudine-based antiretroviral therapy regimens in Lusaka, Zambia.
(2011-Dec-15) Chi BH; Mwango A; Giganti MJ; Sikazwe I; Moyo C; Schuttner L; Mulenga LB; Bolton-Moore C; Chintu NT; Sheneberger R; Stringer EM; Stringer JS; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia. bchi@uab.edu; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Although tenofovir (TDF) is a common component of antiretroviral therapy (ART), recent evidence suggests inferior outcomes when it is combined with nevirapine (NVP). METHODS: We compared outcomes among patients initiating TDF + emtricitabine or lamivudine (XTC) + NVP, TDF + XTC + efavirenz (EFV), zidovudine (ZDV) + lamuvidine (3TC) + NVP, and ZDV + 3TC + EFV. We categorized drug exposure by initial ART dispensation by a time-varying analysis that accounted for drug substitutions and by predominant exposure (>75% of drug dispensations) during an initial window period. Risks for death and program failure were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. All regimens were compared with ZDV + 3TC + NVP. RESULTS: Between July 2007 and November 2010, 18,866 treatment-naive adults initiated ART: 18.2% on ZDV + 3TC + NVP, 1.8% on ZDV + 3TC + EFV, 36.2% on TDF + XTC + NVP, and 43.8% on TDF + XTC + EFV. When exposure was categorized by initial prescription, patients on TDF + XTC + NVP [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR): 1.45; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 to 2.06] had a higher post-90-day mortality. TDF + XTC + NVP was also associated with an elevated risk for mortality when exposure was categorized as time-varying (AHR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.95) or by predominant exposure over the first 90 days (AHR: 1.91, 95% CI: 1.09 to 3.34). However, these findings were not consistently observed across sensitivity analyses or when program failure was used as a secondary outcome. CONCLUSION: TDF + XTC + NVP was associated with higher mortality when compared with ZDV + 3TC + NVP but not consistently across sensitivity analyses. These findings may be explained in part by inherent limitations to our retrospective approach, including residual confounding. Further research is urgently needed to compare the effectiveness of ART regimens in use in resource-constrained settings.
Managing multiple funding streams and agendas to achieve local and global health and research objectives: lessons from the field.
(2014-Jan-01) Holmes CB; Sikazwe I; Raelly RL; Freeman BL; Wambulawae I; Silwizya G; Topp SM; Chilengi R; Henostroza G; Kapambwe S; Simbeye D; Sibajene S; Chi H; Godfrey K; Chi B; Moore CB; *Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia; †School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; ‡School of Medicine, University of Alabama, Birmingham, AL; and §Division of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
Multiple funding sources provide research and program implementation organizations a broader base of funding and facilitate synergy, but also entail challenges that include varying stakeholder expectations, unaligned grant cycles, and highly variable reporting requirements. Strong governance and strategic planning are essential to ensure alignment of goals and agendas. Systems to track budgets and outputs, as well as procurement and human resources are required. A major goal of funders is to transition leadership and operations to local ownership. This article details successful approaches used by the newly independent nongovernmental organization, the Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia.
Incidence rate of Kaposi sarcoma in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa: a prospective multicohort study.
(2014-Dec-15) Rohner E; Valeri F; Maskew M; Prozesky H; Rabie H; Garone D; Dickinson D; Chimbetete C; Lumano-Mulenga P; Sikazwe I; Wyss N; Clough-Gorr KM; Egger M; Chi BH; Bohlius J; *Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (ISPM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; †Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; ‡Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Stellenbosch and Tygerberg Academic Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa; §Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, University of Stellenbosch and Tygerberg Academic Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa; ‖Khayelitsha ART Program, Medecins Sans Frontieres, Cape Town, South Africa; ¶Independent Surgery, Gaborone, Botswana; #Newlands Clinic, Harare, Zimbabwe; **Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ), Lusaka, Zambia; ††Boston University School of Medicine, Section of Geriatrics, Boston, MA, USA; and ‡‡Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research (CIDER), University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
BACKGROUND: The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included patient data of 6 ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. FINDINGS: We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. Five hundred and sixty-four incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). The overall KS incidence rate was 164/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI): 151 to 178]. The incidence rate was highest 30-90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI: 342 to 497) and declined thereafter [86/100,000 pys (95% CI: 71 to 105), >2 years after ART initiation]. Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.61], low current CD4 counts (≥500 versus <50 cells/μL, adjusted HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.55), and age (5-9 years versus 30-39 years, adjusted HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. INTERPRETATION: Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.
Estimated mortality on HIV treatment among active patients and patients lost to follow-up in 4 provinces of Zambia: Findings from a multistage sampling-based survey.
(2018-Jan) Holmes CB; Sikazwe I; Sikombe K; Eshun-Wilson I; Czaicki N; Beres LK; Mukamba N; Simbeza S; Bolton Moore C; Hantuba C; Mwaba P; Phiri C; Padian N; Glidden DV; Geng E; University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.; Lusaka Apex Medical University, Lusaka, Zambia.; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America.; Stellenbosch University, Cape Town, South Africa.; Ministry of Health, Government of the Republic of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; Georgetown University, Washington, DC, United States of America.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America.; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Survival represents the single most important indicator of successful HIV treatment. Routine monitoring fails to capture most deaths. As a result, both regional assessments of the impact of HIV services and identification of hotspots for improvement efforts are limited. We sought to assess true mortality on treatment, characterize the extent under-reporting of mortality in routine health information systems in Zambia, and identify drivers of mortality across sites and over time using a multistage, regionally representative sampling approach. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enumerated all HIV infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) who visited any one of 64 facilities across 4 provinces in Zambia during the 24-month period from 1 August 2013 to 31 July 2015. We identified a probability sample of patients who were lost to follow-up through selecting facilities probability proportional to size and then a simple random sample of lost patients. Outcomes among patients lost to follow-up were incorporated into survival analysis and multivariate regression through probability weights. Of 165,464 individuals (64% female, median age 39 years (IQR 33-46), median CD4 201 cells/mm3 (IQR 111-312), the 2-year cumulative incidence of mortality increased from 1.9% (95% CI 1.7%-2.0%) to a corrected rate of 7.0% (95% CI 5.7%-8.4%) (all ART users) and from 2.1% (95% CI 1.8%-2.4%) to 8.3% (95% CI 6.1%-10.7%) (new ART users). Revised provincial mortality rates ranged from 3-9 times higher than naïve rates for new ART users and were lowest in Lusaka Province (4.6 per 100 person-years) and highest in Western Province (8.7 per 100 person-years) after correction. Corrected mortality rates varied markedly by clinic, with an IQR of 3.5 to 7.5 deaths per 100 person-years and a high of 13.4 deaths per 100 person-years among new ART users, even after adjustment for clinical (e.g., pretherapy CD4) and contextual (e.g., province and clinic size) factors. Mortality rates (all ART users) were highest year 1 after treatment at 4.6/100 person-years (95% CI 3.9-5.5), 2.9/100 person-years (95% CI 2.1-3.9) in year 2, and approximately 1.6% per year through 8 years on treatment. In multivariate analysis, patient-level factors including male sex and pretherapy CD4 levels and WHO stage were associated with higher mortality among new ART users, while male sex and HIV disclosure were associated with mortality among all ART users. In both cases, being late (>14 days late for appointment) or lost (>90 days late for an appointment) was associated with deaths. We were unable to ascertain the vital status of about one-quarter of those lost and selected for tracing and did not adjudicate causes of death. CONCLUSIONS: HIV treatment in Zambia is not optimally effective. The high and sustained mortality rates and marked under-reporting of mortality at the provincial-level and unexplained heterogeneity between regions and sites suggest opportunities for the use of corrected mortality rates for quality improvement. A regionally representative sampling-based approach can bring gaps and opportunities for programs into clear epidemiological focus for local and global decision makers.
'They care rudely!': resourcing and relational health system factors that influence retention in care for people living with HIV in Zambia.
(2018) Mwamba C; Sharma A; Mukamba N; Beres L; Geng E; Holmes CB; Sikazwe I; Topp SM; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; School of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.; Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.; College of Public Health Medical and Veterinary Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
INTRODUCTION: Despite access to free antiretroviral therapy (ART), many HIV-positive Zambians disengage from HIV care. We sought to understand how Zambian health system 'hardware' (tangible components) and 'software' (work practices and behaviour) influenced decisions to disengage from care among 'lost-to-follow-up' patients traced by a larger study on their current health status. METHODS: We purposively selected 12 facilities, from 4 provinces. Indepth interviews were conducted with 69 patients across four categories: engaged in HIV care, disengaged from care, transferred to another facility and next of kin if deceased. We also conducted 24 focus group discussions with 158 lay and professional healthcare workers (HCWs). These data were triangulated against two consecutive days of observation conducted in each facility. We conducted iterative multilevel analysis using inductive and deductive reasoning. RESULTS: Health system 'hardware' factors influencing patients' disengagement included inadequate infrastructure to protect privacy; distance to health facilities which costs patients time and money; and chronic understaffing which increased wait times. Health system 'software' factors related to HCWs' work practices and clinical decisions, including delayed opening times, file mismanagement, drug rationing and inflexibility in visit schedules, increased wait times, number of clinic visits, and frustrated access to care. While patients considered HCWs as 'mentors' and trusted sources of information, many also described them as rude, tardy, careless with details and confidentiality, and favouring relatives. Nonetheless, unlike previously reported, many patients preferred ART over alternative treatment (eg, traditional medicine) for its perceived efficacy, cost-free availability and accompanying clinical monitoring. CONCLUSION: Findings demonstrate the dynamic effect of health system 'hardware' and 'software' factors on decisions to disengage. Our findings suggest a need for improved: physical resourcing and structuring of HIV services, preservice and inservice HCWs and management training and mentorship programmes to encourage HCWs to provide 'patient-centered' care and exercise 'flexibility' to meet patients' varying needs and circumstances.
Mortality & recurrent seizure risk after new-onset seizure in HIV-positive Zambian adults.
(2018-Dec-07) Elafros MA; Johnson BA; Siddiqi OK; Okulicz JF; Sikazwe I; Bositis CM; Potchen MJ; Koralnik IJ; Theodore WH; Kalungwana L; Birbeck GL; Clinical Epilepsy Section, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, NINDS NIH Building 10 Room 7D-43, Bethesda, MD, 20892, USA.; Greater Lawrence Family Health Center, 34 Haverhill St, Lawrence, MA, 01841, USA.; Infectious Disease Service, Brooke Army Medical Center, 3851 Roger Brooke Dr., Fort Sam Houston, San Antonio, TX, 78234, USA.; Epilepsy Division, Department of Neurology, University of Rochester School of Medicine & Dentistry, 265 Crittenden Blvd, CU420694, Rochester, NY, 14642-0694, USA.; Department of Biostatistics and Computational Biology, University of Rochester, 265 Crittenden Boulevard, CU 420-630, Rochester, NY, 14642-0630, USA.; Department of Psychology, University of Zambia, P.O. BOX 32379, 10101, Lusaka, Zambia.; Global Neurology Program, Division of Neuroimmunology, Department of Neurology, E/CLS 1017B Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, 330 Brookline Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, USA.; Department of Neurological Sciences, Rush University Medical Center, 1725 W. Harrison Street, Suite 1106, Chicago, IL, 60612, USA.; Epilepsy Care Team, Chikankata Hospital, Private Bag S2, Mazabuka, Zambia.; Center for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, 5032 Great North Road, P.O. Box 34681, Lusaka, Zambia.; Neuroradiology Division, Department of Imaging Sciences, University of Rochester Medical Center, 601 Elmwood Ave, Box 648, Rochester, NY, 14642, USA.; Department of Internal Medicine, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia.; Department of Neurology, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Sheik Zayed Tower, Room 6005, 1800 Orleans Street, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA. melafro1@jhmi.edu.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Recurrent seizure risks in HIV-positive people with new-onset seizure are largely unknown, making it challenging to offer optimal recommendations regarding antiepileptic drug (AED) initiation. Existing outcomes data is limited, and risk factor identification requires a diagnostic assessment, which is often unavailable in regions heavily effected by HIV, like sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: HIV-positive Zambian adults with new-onset seizure were enrolled in a prospective cohort study to determine seizure recurrence and risk factors for recurrence. Seizure etiology was evaluated, and recurrent seizures and medication usage were assessed during clinic visits. Due to unexpectedly high mortality rates, predictors of death were evaluated using proportional hazards with Gray's test to compare cumulative incidence functions for recurrent seizure across groups adjusting for the competing outcome of death. RESULTS: 95 patients were enrolled (mean age 37 years, 43% female, 83% with Karnofsky > 50) and followed for a mean of 293 days (median 241 (IQR: 29-532)). At presentation, 50 (53%) were in status epilepticus. The majority (91, 85%) had advanced HIV disease and 65 (68%) were not on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART). After extensive workup, seizure etiology remained unknown in 16 (17%). Average time to cART initiation after enrollment was 61 days. During follow up, 37 (39%) died and 23 (24%) had recurrent seizure. Most deaths (25/37, 68%) occurred in the first 60 days post-index seizure. Individuals with advanced HIV were more likely to die (HR: 19.1 [95% CI: 1.1-333.4]) as were those whose seizure etiology remained unknown (HR: 2.2 [95% CI: 1.1-4.4]). Among participants that survived from enrolment to the end of data collection on 10 May 2013 (n = 58), 20 (34%) experienced recurrent seizures. CONCLUSIONS: New-onset seizure among HIV-positive Zambian adults is associated with high mortality despite good functional status prior to presentation. Advanced HIV infection and failure to identify an underlying seizure etiology are associated with greater mortality. Recurrent seizures occur in over a third of survivors within only 2 years of follow-up. This provides evidence to support AED initiation after first seizure in HIV-positive individuals with advanced HIV disease at the time of presentation though the risks of AED-cART interactions remain a concern and warrant further study.
Operational characteristics of antiretroviral therapy clinics in Zambia: a time and motion analysis.
(2019-Apr-24) Tampi RP; Tembo T; Mukumba-Mwenechanya M; Sharma A; Dowdy DW; Holmes CB; Bolton-Moore C; Sikazwe I; Tucker A; Sohn H; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA. hsohn6@jhu.edu.; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.; Centers for Infectious Disease Research (CIDRZ), Lusaka, Zambia.
BACKGROUND: The mass scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Zambia has taken place in the context of limited infrastructure and human resources resulting in many operational side-effects. In this study, we aimed to empirically measure current workload of ART clinic staff and patient wait times and service utilization. METHODS: We conducted time and motion (TAM) studies from both the healthcare worker (HCW) and patient perspectives at 10 ART clinics throughout Zambia. Trained personnel recorded times for consecutive discrete activities based on direct observation of clinical and non-clinical activities performed by counselors, clinical officers, nurses, and pharmacy technicians. For patient TAM, we recruited consenting patients and recorded times of arrival and departure and major ART services utilized. Data from 10 clinics were pooled to evaluate median time per patient spent for each activity and patient duration of stay in the clinic. RESULTS: The percentage of observed clinical time for direct patient interaction (median time per patient encounter) was 43.1% for ART counselors (4 min, interquartile range [IQR] 2-7), 46.1% for nurses (3 min, IQR 2-4), 57.2% for pharmacy technicians (2 min, IQR 1-2), and 78.5% for clinical officers (3 min, IQR 2-5). Patient workloads for HCWs were heaviest between 8 AM and 12 PM with few clinical activities observed after 2 PM. The length of patient visits was inversely associated with arrival time - patients arriving prior to 8 AM spent 61% longer at the clinic than those arriving after 8 AM (277 vs. 171 min). Overall, patients spent 219 min on average for non-clinical visits, and 244 min for clinical visits, but this difference was not significant in rural clinics. In comparison, total time patients spent directly with clinic staff were 9 and 12 min on average for non-clinical and clinical visits. CONCLUSION: Current Zambian ART clinic operations include substantial inefficiencies for both patients and HCWs, with workloads heavily concentrated in the first few hours of clinic opening, limiting HCW and patient interaction time. Use of a differentiated care model may help to redistribute workloads during operational hours and prevent backlogs of patients waiting for hours before clinic opening, which may substantially improve ART delivery in the Zambian context.
Differentiated Care Preferences of Stable Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Zambia: A Discrete Choice Experiment.
(2019-Aug-15) Eshun-Wilson I; Mukumbwa-Mwenechanya M; Kim HY; Zannolini A; Mwamba CP; Dowdy D; Kalunkumya E; Lumpa M; Beres LK; Roy M; Sharma A; Topp SM; Glidden DV; Padian N; Ehrenkranz P; Sikazwe I; Holmes CB; Bolton-Moore C; Geng EH; United Kingdom Department for International Development, Dar Es Salaam office, Tanzania.; University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA.; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA.; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA.; Georgetown University, Washington, DC.; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD.; James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.; Africa Health Research Institute, Durban, South Africa.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Although differentiated service delivery (DSD) models for stable patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) offer a range of health systems innovations, their comparative desirability to patients remains unknown. We conducted a discrete choice experiment to quantify service attributes most desired by patients to inform model prioritization. METHODS: Between July and December 2016, a sample of HIV-positive adults on ART at 12 clinics in Zambia were asked to choose between 2 hypothetical facilities that differed across 6 DSD attributes. We used mixed logit models to explore preferences, heterogeneity, and trade-offs. RESULTS: Of 486 respondents, 59% were female and 85% resided in urban locations. Patients strongly preferred infrequent clinic visits [3- vs. 1-month visits: β (ie, relative utility) = 2.84; P < 0.001]. Milder preferences were observed for waiting time for ART pick-up (1 vs. 6 hours.; β = -0.67; P < 0.001) or provider (1 vs. 3 hours.; β = -0.41; P = 0.002); "buddy" ART collection (β = 0.84; P < 0.001); and ART pick-up location (clinic vs. community: β = 0.35; P = 0.028). Urban patients demonstrated a preference for collecting ART at a clinic (β = 1.32, P < 0.001), and although most rural patients preferred community ART pick-up (β = -0.74, P = 0.049), 40% of rural patients still preferred facility ART collection. CONCLUSIONS: Stable patients on ART primarily want to attend clinic infrequently, supporting a focus in Zambia on optimizing multimonth prescribing over other DSD features-particularly in urban areas. Substantial preference heterogeneity highlights the need for DSD models to be flexible, and accommodate both setting features and patient choice in their design.
Retention and viral suppression in a cohort of HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy in Zambia: Regionally representative estimates using a multistage-sampling-based approach.
(2019-May) Sikazwe I; Eshun-Wilson I; Sikombe K; Czaicki N; Somwe P; Mody A; Simbeza S; Glidden DV; Chizema E; Mulenga LB; Padian N; Duncombe CJ; Bolton-Moore C; Beres LK; Holmes CB; Geng E; University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, United States of America.; Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America.; International Association of Providers of AIDS Care, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America.; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America.; Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.; University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama, United States of America.; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.; CIDRZ; Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ)
BACKGROUND: Although the success of HIV treatment programs depends on retention and viral suppression, routine program monitoring of these outcomes may be incomplete. We used data from the national electronic medical record (EMR) system in Zambia to enumerate a large and regionally representative cohort of patients on treatment. We traced a random sample with unknown outcomes (lost to follow-up) to document true care status and HIV RNA levels. METHODS AND FINDINGS: On 31 July 2015, we selected facilities from 4 provinces in 12 joint strata defined by facility type and province with probability proportional to size. In each facility, we enumerated adults with at least 1 clinical encounter after treatment initiation in the previous 24 months. From this cohort, we identified lost-to-follow-up patients (defined as 90 or more days late for their last appointment), selected a random sample, and intensively reviewed their records and traced them via phone calls and in-person visits in the community. In 1 of 4 provinces, we also collected dried blood spots (DBSs) for plasma HIV RNA testing. We used inverse probability weights to incorporate sampling outcomes into Aalen-Johansen and Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate retention and viremia. We used a bias analysis approach to correct for the known inaccuracy of plasma HIV RNA levels obtained from DBSs. From a total of 64 facilities with 165,464 adults on ART, we selected 32 facilities with 104,966 patients, of whom 17,602 (17%) were lost to follow-up: Those lost to follow-up had median age 36 years, 60% were female (N = 11,241), they had median enrollment CD4 count of 220 cells/μl, and 38% had WHO stage 1 clinical disease (N = 10,690). We traced 2,892 (16%) and found updated outcomes for 2,163 (75%): 412 (19%) had died, 836 (39%) were alive and in care at their original clinic, 457 (21%) had transferred to a new clinic, 255 (12%) were alive and out of care, and 203 (9%) were alive but we were unable to determine care status. Estimates using data from the EMR only suggested that 42.7% (95% CI 38.0%-47.1%) of new ART starters and 72.3% (95% CI 71.8%-73.0%) of all ART users were retained at 2 years. After incorporating updated data through tracing, we found that 77.3% (95% CI 70.5%-84.0%) of new initiates and 91.2% (95% CI 90.5%-91.8%) of all ART users were retained (at original clinic or transferred), indicating that routine program data underestimated retention in care markedly. In Lusaka Province, HIV RNA levels greater than or equal to 1,000 copies/ml were present in 18.1% (95% CI 14.0%-22.3%) of patients in care, 71.3% (95% CI 58.2%-84.4%) of lost patients, and 24.7% (95% CI 21.0%-29.3%). The main study limitations were imperfect response rates and the use of self-reported care status. CONCLUSIONS: In this region of Zambia, routine program data underestimated retention, and the point prevalence of unsuppressed HIV RNA was high when lost patients were accounted for. Viremia was prevalent among patients who unofficially transferred: Sustained engagement remains a challenge among HIV patients in Zambia, and targeted sampling is an effective strategy to identify such gaps in the care cascade and monitor programmatic progress.

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