Climate Variability Drives Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh

Abstract

<jats:p>Background: Dengue fever has emerged as a major public health concern in Bangladesh, with increasing incidence and geographic spread of outbreaks in recent years. This study aimed to investigate the lagged and non-linear associations between climatic factors and dengue incidence across all eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh from 2014 to 2025. Materials and Methods: An ecological time-series design was employed using monthly dengue case data (n = 741,338) and meteorological variables. A generalized additive model (GAM) with a negative binomial distribution was applied to account for overdispersion and capture complex relationships. Descriptive analysis was conducted to assess spatial heterogeneity, and choropleth maps were constructed to visualize the spatial distribution and regional variation in dengue burden across the country. Cross-correlation analysis was performed to identify significant lagged associations between climatic variables and dengue incidence. Results: Descriptive analysis showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with the highest incidence observed in Dhaka (6.53 per 100,000) and the lowest in Sylhet (0.21 per 100,000). Choropleth maps illustrated distinct spatial distribution and regional variation in dengue burden across the country. Cross-correlation analysis identified significant lagged associations for temperature and rainfall (lag 1–3 months), humidity (lag 1–2 months), and wind speed (lag 2–3 months). The final GAM explained 88.6% of the deviance in dengue incidence (AIC = 7404.15; dispersion = 0.767). The approximate significance of smooth terms revealed that temperature at a lag of 1 month (p &lt; 0.001, edf = 12.28), rainfall at a lag of 3 months (p &lt; 0.001, edf = 2.85), and wind speed at a lag of 2 months (p &lt; 0.001, edf = 2.25) were highly significant non-linear predictors of dengue transmission. Relative humidity was not significantly associated with dengue incidence. Non-linear effects revealed peak dengue risk at temperatures between 25 and 30 °C and moderate rainfall (~10 mm), particularly during monsoon months (June–October). A strong autoregressive effect indicated that prior dengue incidence significantly influenced current transmission. Conclusions: Overall, dengue transmission in Bangladesh is driven by complex, lagged, and non-linear interactions between climatic variables, seasonality, and regional factors. These findings provide critical evidence for climate-based early warning systems, enhance outbreak prediction, and inform evidence-based vector control strategies.</jats:p>